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2022
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06
The Impact of Robot Technology Development on Employment -- From the Perspective of Occupational Substitution
Abstract:Robot technology is developing rapidly in China, and it is particularly important to study the impact of robots on China's job market. From the occupational level, this paper uses LASSO regression and random forest methods to measure the possibility of being replaced by 435 occupations (corresponding to more than 1,000 sub-occupations in the Chinese occupational classification canon) on O-NET. The analysis results show that about 33% of the labor force in China is at a high risk level, and gender, age, education level and salary are significantly related to the possibility of being replaced. Finally, this paper explores the impact of robots on future employment in China. In the context of the smooth progress of industrial restructuring, if China's average GDP growth rate in the next 30 years reaches about 5.5, the substitution effect of robots on labor will not have a great impact on the overall employment level. In the case of industrial structure adjustment is not in place, the substitution effect of robots on labor will bring severe challenges to China's employment.
Key words:artificial intelligence; robot; job substitution; employment in China
Abstract：With the rapid development of robotics technology in China, it is particularly important to study the impact of robots on China's job market. We use LASSO regression and random forest to calculate the probabilities of 435 occupations being replaced by robots on O*NET(corresponding to more than a thousand sub-occupations in China's occupational classification code). The results show that about 33% of China's labor force is at high risk of being replaced, and gender, age, education level and salary are all correlated with the probabilities. Finally, this paper explores the impact of robots on future employment in China. If China can maintain the average GDP growth rate to 5.5% in the next 30 years under the background of industrial restructuring, the replacement effect of robots on labor will not have a big impact on China's overall employment situation, but when China's average GDP growth rate cannot be maintained at such a growth rate, or the industrial structure is not fully adjusted, the substitution effect of robots on labor will cause unemployment.
Keyword：AI; robots; occupation replacement effect; employment in China
Author: Liu Taoxiong, Pan Zixing, Liu Jun
Author: Institute of Economics, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University
International Business School, Beijing Foreign Studies University
The full text has been published in Science of Science Research, Issue 3, 2022.
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